Arms Race or Reverse Psychology?

Tun Mahathir Mohamad’s concillary tone in a recent statement is worth a chuckle or two. To Singapore’s participation of an airshow in Langkawi, Tun Mahathir asked the Malaysian Government not to enter into an arms race with Singapore as it was a “waste of money”.

Actually his exact words were, “It’s a waste of money. We’re not fighting, we’re not going to war with Singapore.” Wise words indeed.

Except when it comes from the same person who once said, “Please never mention Singapore in front of me again. Don’t you know we are at war with Singapore?” it just sounds ironic.

More tongue in cheek was the Malaysian King’s statement when Malaysian received shipment of its first submarines, “I hope you will have better avenues to protect the nation from threats, now that you are equipped with such expensive assets that are a force-multiplier.” I’m not even sure if the King is for or against buying submarines!

Perhaps both are on the same ticket, that an arms race with anyone in the region (or is it just with Singapore?) is a waste of money, and I tend to agree. But is there a split in ideology between the past and powerless rulers of Malaysia and the recent regimes of Badawi and Najib? Let us look at the recent past of military purchases by Singapore and Malaysia:

Singapore’s Archer Submarine – June 2009
Malaysia’s Scorpene Submarine – Sept 2009 (3 months later)
Singapore’s F-15 Fighter Jet – May 2009
Malaysia’s SU-30 Fighter Jet – Aug 2009 (again 3 months later)

Coincidence? Maybe.

Net Bonus or Malus?

For the second year running, Temasek Holdings staff will be looking at “negative bonuses”, revealed Ms Ho Ching.

Though it delivered almost 7 per cent of positive total shareholder return last year, Temasek saw its portfolio value fall by at least $40 billion in the year to March 2009. Thus, there will be cuts in the staff’s bonus pool that comes under the Wealth Added Bonus plan, where employees share in the institution’s performance.

Returns above the cost of capital target means Temasek has gains to share with staff. But returns below its risk-adjusted cost of capital hurdle means deductions from the staff’s bonus pool.

The challenge lies in how to share a negative bonus equitably and fairly among staff, said Ms Ho, noting that “from CEO to office attendants”, all staff were allocated negative bonuses last year and will be distributed more of the same this year once audited financials are approved.

Temasek did not elaborate if this means staff would take home smaller or no bonuses.

However, Today understands the company’s total bonus package also consists of a 13th-month payout and a performance bonus.

Ms Ho said this “very difficult market cycle” has put Temasek’s compensation framework to the test, and enabled it to rethink and refine its incentive elements. Leong Wee Keat

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/EDC090730-0000099/Negative-bonus-for-all-staff

While the concept of malus is certainly not novel it is certainly an industry practice and one that should be rightfully adopted by Temasek at this current juncture. However what remains unclear as pointed out above is, is it a net malus or net bonus? All signs point to a mere slap on the wrist, ie a net bonus. For shame.

And another thing, could someone explain to me like I’m a 3 year old how Temasek could achieve overall 7% net shareholder gain yet lose S$40b of their portfolio? Am I being a moron or does that statement read like an oxymoron?

Western-style democracy not for everyone

Chinese President Hu Jintao declared yesterday (December 18) that China would never turn back from its policy of reform and opening up, but it would also not go down the path of a Western liberal democracy.

Amid the worst global financial crisis since the 1930s, Hu identified maintaining social stability as the most pressing task for the Chinese government, reviving official slogans used after the 1989 Tiananmen protests and the fall of the Soviet Union.

The exhortation reflects a certain anxiety among the Chinese leaders, say analysts, even as Hu presented a glowing 30-year report card showing average annual growth of 9.8 per cent, China’s hosting of the Olympics and its ascent into space.

“Development is the overriding principle,” he said, repeating a famous slogan of the late patriarch Deng Xiaoping to turn China into a market economy after a party meeting on Dec 18, 1978.

But Hu added: “Stability is the overriding task“–another slogan by Deng, which was used only after the end of the Cold War and the turmoil of the student protests in 1989, when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) feared for its future.

“If there is no stability, then nothing can be achieved, and what achievements we have made will be lost,” Hu told a gathering of party leaders and others in the Great Hall of the People to celebrate 30 years of economic reform in China.

The reform policy put an end to decades of command economy, isolation and chaotic political struggles under Mao Zedong–a change which China celebrated yesterday with variety programmes on China Central Television and photo exhibitions.

Hu stressed that there would be no return to those autarkic days, but in unusually strong words, he said that China will never deviate from socialism and go down a “evil path”.

“We must draw on the beneficial fruits of humankind’s political civilisation, but we will never copy the model of the Western political system,” he said.

Renowned China economist Wu Jinglian told The Straits Times outside the Great Hall that the main message from Hu was that reform will continue.

Official news agency Xinhua in its reports stressed Hu’s message that China would adhere to its own social system and development path and “never bow to foreign pressure”.

But Hong Kong-based political analyst Willy Lam read Hu’s defence of the system as betraying nervousness about pressures that could appear because of the economic downturn.

“The financial crisis has surprised the leaders and they are genuinely afraid that the migrant workers who lost their jobs would cause social unrest,” he said.

After 30 years of economic reforms, questions about political change have also surfaced.In the recent Charter 08 movement, for example, more than 300 intellectuals, journalists and activists, from across the country, put their names to a document asking for more rights, freedom and democratic elections for all levels of government.

While Hu mentioned democracy several times yesterday, it was in the context of “inner party democracy” and “democratic socialism”.

He made plain that the CCP must remain the vanguard of the Chinese people and stay true to its origins as a Marxist-Leninist party.

Rather then the usual perfunctory reference to Marxism that is typical of Chinese leaders’ speeches in recent years, Hu mentioned it 34 times in his 90-minute speech–about once every three minutes.

The route ahead, he said, was continued economic reform, along the lines of the last three decades.And Hu, who was watched on stage by his predecessor–third-generation leader Jiang Zemin–elevated the status of the reform policy by calling it China’s “third revolution” in the 20th century.

The first two are the overthrow of the imperial system in 1911 and the triumph of the communists in 1949.

He also said repeatedly that among the ideologies the CCP must adhere to, it is the Deng Xiaoping Theory–economic development in socialism–that deserves greater emphasis.It was a nod to his patron Deng, who handpicked him to be the fourth-generation leader, and indirectly, an affirmation of his own legitimacy as party leader.

Hu also issued a subtle warning to the party rank-and-file that the CCP’s power should not be taken for granted.

“Possession in the past does not mean that you would still have it today.Possession today does not mean that you would have it forever,” he said.

These words will be ringing in alot of ears for awhile, not least of whose our MM LKY’s.Like it or not, MM LKY has shaped Singapore in exactly the two dictums said by Deng Xiaoping.In fact I’ll willing to wager it was LKY who shared this principle with Deng when they met in 1978 although it could be the other way around, but it matters not because both DXP and LKY went through similar trials by fire through their own country’s political turmoil and emerged as political leaders later on, and could have come to the same conclusions separately or were students of the same philisophy of collectivism.

The implicit social contracts of Singapore and China, have in their pursuits towards a position in the global stage, stressed collectivism over individualism, where the needs and priorities of a nation are stressed over those of the individual.This is the direct opposite of liberal democracies like the UK and US, the two being of such extreme examples of societies that stress individualism, till the point where certain individuals have nearly full reign over their host nations.Look at where that has brought them; double-edge sword no less.

Both methods have, if left unchecked, their extreme forms.Too much control or collective thought and it becomes an oppressive totalitarian regime.Too much freedom and it becomes an anarchy.While opponents have argued that the governments of Singapore and China are restrictive regimes with oft-reported cases of bankruptcy cases and civil crackdowns, it is to my mind a delicate balance of individual freedoms and a collective purpose that is needed.I am no student of such philosophies or theories but it does seem to me that Singapore has been trying to balance this for the last 40 years.I believe it has more or less found a nice balance.

More or less.Personally I’m for having a livelihood and being able to continue being a citizen of a country that exists (instead of burning in ruinous flames) than being able to run around naked.

Did we win or lose?

So the big news of the week (other than the WRDC supt being sacked) was that the ICJ finally rules on a 10-year old case, and that Singapore gets to keep Pedra Branca (or Pulau Batu Puteh depending on your flavour) while Malaysia gets the Middle Rocks. Another feature the Southern Ledge is yet to be judged. Before the case results were released I personally knew nothing of these Rocks and Ledges.

For Pedra Branca, ICJ’s 16-member bench voted 12-4 in favour of Singapore. Ownership of Middle Rocks, a maritime feature 0.6 nautical miles from Pedra Branca, was voted 15-1 in favour of Malaysia. If you added them up, it’s 13 for Singapore but 19 for Malaysia on the whole case. Hmmm if my math serves me right, looks to me like Singapore lost rather than won.

Indeed, originally Singapore laid claim and managed the entire region of land and sea, including these Rocks and Ledges. Now, we have to give the Rocks back to Malaysia. It’s very likely that Malaysia will win the Southern Ledge as well considering that any piece of land not currently administered by Singapore is judged to be owned by Malaysia. Look at this map:

The Middle Rocks is a stone’s throw away from Pulau Batu Puteh. If the addendum sea lanes are to be divided, in all likelihood the resolution of sea lane division will be a thorny issue indeed. Will we begin to see sea lane territorial disputes the like of South Korea, North Korea, Japan and China routinely visit with each other?

Malaysia puts this as a “win-win” solution. I agree. From a “nothing-win” situation where Malaysia had nothing and Singapore everything, it is now a situation where Malaysia has something and Singapore now has less. To me that sounds more like a “win-lose” situation.

http://www.newsintercom.org/index.php?itemid=597

Jaded

In the popular syndicated comic Foxtrot, Jason Fox the nerdy genius younger brother presents a perfect-score math test to his mom and gets a pat on the head for a good job done. Then Paige Fox, Jason’s older and not-so-smart teen sister presents to their mom a math test score that while not spectacular, was a decent score. Paige gets rewarded with a substantial prize despite Jason’s protests. Mom replies that while Jason does a good job with his repeated perfect scores, Paige’s higher score took more effort and therefore should be rewarded.

In another strip, Eileen Jacobson is a schoolmate of Jason’s and Jason frequently tutors her in math. In one rare occasion, Jason is in for a rude shock as Eileen actually outscored Jason in a math test. Eileen doesn’t think it that dumbfounding preferring to enjoy her good math score while Jason repeatedly wails upon Eileen for beating him and gets upset.

Alas as Foxtrot by Bill Amend is syndicated, there are no online archives. Pictures speak volumes as they say. Both these 2 strips “illustrate” how when people routinely or frequently experience a similar event or result, they end up jaded to the experience. Much like eating lots of chili or watching lots of porn, you need more to get that same previous high.

In a premise of repeated success (like Jason Fox with his mom or Eileen), it is not the repeated success that garners attention, rather it is the exact opposite that does. Any event outside the usual excellence is that that receives the undue attention, when logic would suggest that while the aberrations should not be ignored, the repeated successes shouldn’t similarly be ignored too.

When Mas Selamat Kastari escaped from WRDC, Singapore and the world reeled in shock, dumbfounded that a city-state replete with number ones and sterling global achievements could commit such a boo-boo. MM Lee says it was complacency that resulted in the confluence of events that led to MSK’s escape. While I agree with MM Lee’s general assessment, I feel that it is jadedness that ultimately answers the nation’s reaction to this episode, especially the reactions of its critics.

This failure has gripped the nation, with special COI hearings, trifecta investigations, media reports, parliamentary statements, calls for heads to roll, calls for accountability, etc. It is interesting to note that in today’s current affairs climate, Singaporean successes are usually passed off in a small media article box, or panned as MSM propaganda bullshit. Singaporeans in the 60s and 70s lauded the successes of Singapore as back then, actual achievements from a small island with literally no hope were hard to come by. And we celebrated them. Today, successes come so fast and furious that we simply ignore them and instead focus on the aberrations, the failures.

Yes, we must not forget the failures, not only MSK’s escape but the failures over the years like the Nicoll Highway collapse, the NKF scandal, Nick Leeson, etc. In all these examples, there must be accountability, we the citizens of Singapore must be allowed to know the story as it unfolded and ultimately someone must be held responsible. But lest us not forget the successes. Why are we not using the same fine-tooth comb to sift through our successes, the same comb we’re using on our failures? Our commandoes topping foreign military schools, weathering the 1997 Asian Economic Crisis, weathering the SARS epidemic, keeping the SGD high against foreign currencies to stave off inflation, a generally high-valued currency from a small nation-state, a 1st-world class per-capita GDP, the JI arrests, stopping a plot to crash a plane into Changi, the world’s busiest container port, winning the right to host the first ever Youth Olympics, winning the right to enter the F1 Grand Prix circuit and its first night race at that, hosting the OIC and Ministerial Summit, restaging a successful Singapore Airshow, etc.

The individuals directly responsible for MSK’s escape are truly complacent or even incompetent, I trust they will receive their due punishment. But we as a nation have become jaded to our successes.

http://www.newsintercom.org/index.php?itemid=588