Did we win or lose?

So the big news of the week (other than the WRDC supt being sacked) was that the ICJ finally rules on a 10-year old case, and that Singapore gets to keep Pedra Branca (or Pulau Batu Puteh depending on your flavour) while Malaysia gets the Middle Rocks. Another feature the Southern Ledge is yet to be judged. Before the case results were released I personally knew nothing of these Rocks and Ledges.

For Pedra Branca, ICJ’s 16-member bench voted 12-4 in favour of Singapore. Ownership of Middle Rocks, a maritime feature 0.6 nautical miles from Pedra Branca, was voted 15-1 in favour of Malaysia. If you added them up, it’s 13 for Singapore but 19 for Malaysia on the whole case. Hmmm if my math serves me right, looks to me like Singapore lost rather than won.

Indeed, originally Singapore laid claim and managed the entire region of land and sea, including these Rocks and Ledges. Now, we have to give the Rocks back to Malaysia. It’s very likely that Malaysia will win the Southern Ledge as well considering that any piece of land not currently administered by Singapore is judged to be owned by Malaysia. Look at this map:

The Middle Rocks is a stone’s throw away from Pulau Batu Puteh. If the addendum sea lanes are to be divided, in all likelihood the resolution of sea lane division will be a thorny issue indeed. Will we begin to see sea lane territorial disputes the like of South Korea, North Korea, Japan and China routinely visit with each other?

Malaysia puts this as a “win-win” solution. I agree. From a “nothing-win” situation where Malaysia had nothing and Singapore everything, it is now a situation where Malaysia has something and Singapore now has less. To me that sounds more like a “win-lose” situation.

http://www.newsintercom.org/index.php?itemid=597

A pinch of humility?

Grats to the Lions for winning the Asean Cup at the Supachalasai Stadium yesterday! An exciting match; the man of the moment IMHO was Lionel Lewis with 2 spectacular saves, without which, Kairul Amri’s venomous shot would have been for naught.

But onto a more serious note…

It has been an interesting 2 weeks of regional development, first kicked off by Thailand’s ruling junta that Singapore, via its overseas stake in AIS, can and are snooping on the Thais’ secure communications. Without dwelling too much on the issue, it was clear that the Thais were sending a strong signal, not surprisingly hot on the heels of Thaksin’s visit to Singapore.

Shortly after, Indonesia bans all sale of sand to anyone. Shockingly an admission by a vice-admiral linked the ban to bilateral ties with Singapore, mirroring a similar ban in 2003.

Then Malaysia swings into the fray, fingering Singapore as the cause for Johore’s flooding, that reclamation efforts in the nearby Singaporean islands resulted in a slowdown in the overflow of rainwater into the Johore Strait, well at least according to Utusan, a Malaysian newspaper.

It’s strange that Singapore’s regional “partners” have come out swinging at her in unison. In politics and diplomacy, both are games of reparte and give and take. Most of the time deals are bargained by perceptions of win-win; how much win-win can be bluffed depends entirely on the skill of the diplomat.

However, in all conducts of trade so to speak, such talks are tempered by a pinch of humility, unless if you’re a global superpower which Singapore obviously isn’t. As she is regarded as a minnow in the region, it is prudent that she at times behaves like one, even if she punches way above her weight. Of late, the region has been attempting what appears to “beatdowns”, attempts by big brothers to put someone in its place as cited in the above paragraphs. There must be a reason for it.

For fun? Unlikely unless we’re talking about newb politicians, perhaps in the Thais’ case. It would an unlikely case for the Indonesians. Possibly it has been a case of both parties, where Singapore has been of late rubbing our regional friends the wrong way. Perhaps as a cautionary tale Singapore ought to conduct its business with more tact?

Could hubris have gotten the better of Singapore, where she has of late weathered global events far better than most in the region and, despite its size achieved quite a far bit more as well? It has been such that her domestic politics have been of the “suck it up” variety. Woe be to Singapore if she thinks that attitude while workable against its docile populace, will work in a regional arena, much less a global one.

http://www.newsintercom.org/index.php?itemid=511