Arms Race or Reverse Psychology?

Tun Mahathir Mohamad’s concillary tone in a recent statement is worth a chuckle or two. To Singapore’s participation of an airshow in Langkawi, Tun Mahathir asked the Malaysian Government not to enter into an arms race with Singapore as it was a “waste of money”.

Actually his exact words were, “It’s a waste of money. We’re not fighting, we’re not going to war with Singapore.” Wise words indeed.

Except when it comes from the same person who once said, “Please never mention Singapore in front of me again. Don’t you know we are at war with Singapore?” it just sounds ironic.

More tongue in cheek was the Malaysian King’s statement when Malaysian received shipment of its first submarines, “I hope you will have better avenues to protect the nation from threats, now that you are equipped with such expensive assets that are a force-multiplier.” I’m not even sure if the King is for or against buying submarines!

Perhaps both are on the same ticket, that an arms race with anyone in the region (or is it just with Singapore?) is a waste of money, and I tend to agree. But is there a split in ideology between the past and powerless rulers of Malaysia and the recent regimes of Badawi and Najib? Let us look at the recent past of military purchases by Singapore and Malaysia:

Singapore’s Archer Submarine – June 2009
Malaysia’s Scorpene Submarine – Sept 2009 (3 months later)
Singapore’s F-15 Fighter Jet – May 2009
Malaysia’s SU-30 Fighter Jet – Aug 2009 (again 3 months later)

Coincidence? Maybe.

MM Lee & SM Goh: building bridges and mending them

Singapore’s involvement with Myanmar has been much derided of late, Singapore’s naming of an orchid after PM Thein Sein, Singapore’s economic investments in the country and recently SM Goh’s recent visit to Myanmar. Many ponder on the rationale behind Singapore’s cosying up to the military junta. Let me posit one.

Powerful and successful diplomats have risen to their stations by sometimes being put between a rock and a hard place. US diplomat Christopher Hill, now Ambassador of Iraq, cut his teeth with the Bosnia and Kosovo crises and at one time served as envoy for the Koreas. It is sometimes through a soft touch with hardliners that displomacy works its magic.

With Myanmar essentially closing its doors to the outside world, much like North Korea, the only country thus far with any sort of inroads to the nation is Singapore, apart from the other otherwise fruitless visits by dignitaries, aid workers and the odd diplomatic tussle over Aung San Suu Kyi, and like North Korea, Myanmar refuses to bend to any foreign political pressure.

With the Singapore smooze campaign off into a good pace with this visit by SM Goh, a level of trust and coorperation has been established with the junta. It is very likely however, that whatever Singapore tries to do will hardly effect any change within the regime, but much like Christopher Hill’s efforts in East Asia, in this world arena of power brokerage, sometimes the efforts are in building bridges first and crossing them later. Critics of Singapore’s involvement with Myanmar should consider this first.

Similarly, MM Lee’s visit to Malaysia has shaken the regional media, political watchers and online pundits. His motives have been analysed and questioned. One would reasonably posit that the PAP would do itself a favour with some fact finding after Malaysia’s dramatic shift of people power from BN/UMNO to Pakatan Rakyat. His visit to Penang is strong indication of that. I seriously doubt that the purpose of MM Lee’s visit is to undermine the Malaysian political tectonic plates. As Malaysia’s closest geographical and economic neighbour, it is for Singapore’s and the PAP’s very survival that we understand how the Malaysian machinery works. Even more so with a Malaysian PM. With new partners, we build bridges. For old friends, we cross the bridges to mend the bridge posts.

Did we win or lose?

So the big news of the week (other than the WRDC supt being sacked) was that the ICJ finally rules on a 10-year old case, and that Singapore gets to keep Pedra Branca (or Pulau Batu Puteh depending on your flavour) while Malaysia gets the Middle Rocks. Another feature the Southern Ledge is yet to be judged. Before the case results were released I personally knew nothing of these Rocks and Ledges.

For Pedra Branca, ICJ’s 16-member bench voted 12-4 in favour of Singapore. Ownership of Middle Rocks, a maritime feature 0.6 nautical miles from Pedra Branca, was voted 15-1 in favour of Malaysia. If you added them up, it’s 13 for Singapore but 19 for Malaysia on the whole case. Hmmm if my math serves me right, looks to me like Singapore lost rather than won.

Indeed, originally Singapore laid claim and managed the entire region of land and sea, including these Rocks and Ledges. Now, we have to give the Rocks back to Malaysia. It’s very likely that Malaysia will win the Southern Ledge as well considering that any piece of land not currently administered by Singapore is judged to be owned by Malaysia. Look at this map:

The Middle Rocks is a stone’s throw away from Pulau Batu Puteh. If the addendum sea lanes are to be divided, in all likelihood the resolution of sea lane division will be a thorny issue indeed. Will we begin to see sea lane territorial disputes the like of South Korea, North Korea, Japan and China routinely visit with each other?

Malaysia puts this as a “win-win” solution. I agree. From a “nothing-win” situation where Malaysia had nothing and Singapore everything, it is now a situation where Malaysia has something and Singapore now has less. To me that sounds more like a “win-lose” situation.

http://www.newsintercom.org/index.php?itemid=597